Question 24·Hard·Probability and Conditional Probability
| Outcome | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Passed inspection | 120 | 80 |
| Failed inspection | 30 | x |
A factory records the numbers of red and blue widgets that either passed or failed a quality inspection, as shown in the table above.
If one of the failed widgets is selected at random, the probability that the widget is blue is . What is the value of ?
(Express the answer as an integer)
For conditional probability questions with tables, first restrict your attention to the relevant row or column (here, the "Failed inspection" row). Write the desired probability as a fraction: (number with the desired trait in that group) divided by (total in that group). Set this fraction equal to the probability given in the problem, then solve the resulting proportion carefully, watching for algebra or distribution mistakes. This approach is fast, systematic, and avoids mixing in irrelevant parts of the table.
Hints
Look at the right part of the table
The question talks about widgets that failed inspection. Which row of the table should you use to compute the probability?
Express the given probability using x
Among the failed widgets, what fraction is blue? Write that fraction using in the numerator and denominator.
Set up and solve a proportion
Once you have the fraction for "blue among failed," set it equal to and solve the resulting equation for .
Desmos Guide
Enter the two sides of the equation
In Desmos, type y = x/(30 + x) on one line and y = 2/5 on another line to graph both the probability expression and the constant .
Find the intersection
Use the point-of-intersection feature (tap/click where the curves cross, or use the menu) to find where the graphs of y = x/(30 + x) and y = 2/5 intersect. The x-coordinate of that intersection is the value of that satisfies the given probability condition.
Step-by-step Explanation
Focus only on the failed widgets
The probability is about failed widgets only, so ignore the "Passed inspection" row.
From the "Failed inspection" row:
- Red: 30
- Blue:
So the total number of failed widgets is .
Write the probability as a fraction
The problem says: "If one of the failed widgets is selected at random, the probability that the widget is blue is ."
Among failed widgets:
- Number of blue failed widgets
- Total failed widgets
So the probability that a failed widget is blue is
We are told this equals , so we set up the equation
Solve the proportion for x
We solve the equation
Cross-multiply:
Distribute on the right side:
Subtract from both sides:
Divide both sides by 3:
So, the value of is 20.