Question 68·Medium·Inferences
After seventeen years without a major flood, many residents of Riverton argued that upgrading the city’s levees would be a waste of money. Municipal engineers, however, analyzed tree rings and archival maps showing that severe floods have tended to recur every fifty to seventy years over the past three centuries. Citing this analysis, the city council voted to fund the levee upgrades anyway. This decision most strongly suggests that ______
Which choice most logically completes the text?
For “most strongly suggests” completions, identify (1) the key action/decision and (2) the evidence motivating it. Paraphrase the implied belief in your own words, then eliminate choices that (a) contradict the action, (b) are more certain/specific than the text supports, or (c) introduce new ideas not grounded in the passage.
Hints
Focus on the word “anyway”
Look at “the city council voted to fund the levee upgrades anyway.” What earlier viewpoint are they choosing to reject by doing this?
Use the engineers’ evidence
The engineers point to a long-term pattern (severe floods recur every 50–70 years). What does that imply about relying only on the last 17 years?
Beware of overstatements
Does the passage prove exactly when the next flood will happen, or does it only suggest a recurring risk over time?
Tie belief to action
What belief about future flood risk would make spending money on upgrades reasonable even after a long lull?
Step-by-step Explanation
Understand the situation and the conflict
Key points:
- Riverton has gone 17 years without a major flood.
- Many residents argue upgrades would be a waste of money.
- Engineers use tree rings and archival maps to show severe floods have tended to recur every 50–70 years over 300 years.
- The city council funds levee upgrades anyway.
So residents rely on the recent lull, while the council relies on long-term recurrence evidence.
Connect the council’s action to what it must believe
Funding the upgrades means the council is rejecting the idea that a long recent calm period makes upgrades unnecessary. Using the engineers’ long-term pattern suggests the council thinks the lack of recent floods is not proof the risk is gone.
Match to the best completion
The implied belief is: even after many flood-free years, severe floods can still occur, so preparing is reasonable. Choose the option that states this without contradicting the action or adding unsupported certainty.
Select the supported option
The best completion is: the council believes that going 17 years without a major flood does not mean Riverton is safe from severe flooding in the future.