An inference question about a study asks what its results support, including a decision someone might make next. Read the words leading into the blank to find the goal, then name each group and its result. Compare the results with any stated cutoff, which separates cases that trigger a response from those that don’t. Predict the smallest step toward the goal that the results support. Wrong choices often add plans the text gives no reason to expect.
Hints
- Hint 1
Start with the words immediately before the blank. Name the harbor master’s goal in a few words.
- Hint 2
Make a short list of the two departure periods and their loss rates. Then check how each rate compares with the insurers’ 10% cutoff.
- Hint 3
What happens to premiums when a seasonal loss rate exceeds 10%, and how does that affect the harbor master’s goal?
Step-by-step
From seasonal risk to a policy
Step 1Find the cost goal
The phrase in an effort to stabilize insurance costs for merchants points to the harbor master’s goal. What decision does the blank ask us to predict? We’re looking for a policy that could keep merchants’ insurance costs steady, so we need to connect the departure records with the rule insurers used to set premiums.
- Step 2
Compare the departure groups
Which departure period had the higher hurricane risk? For May or June departures, 7 (about 2%) of 324 ships were lost; for July or August, 61 of the 355 ships (roughly 17%) were lost. Because the totals differ, we compare loss rates rather than the number of ships lost; roughly 17% is much higher than about 2%.
- Step 3
Apply the insurers’ cutoff
Which departure period triggers the insurers’ price increase? They deemed any seasonal loss rate above 10% unacceptable and sharply increased premiums whenever that threshold was exceeded. About 2% is below that cutoff, while roughly 17% is above it, so the later sailings bring higher insurance costs. We can now predict a policy that encourages merchants to use the lower-risk departure period.
- Step 4
Connect the fee to departure timing
How could a cargo fee help with insurance costs? A surcharge is an extra fee, so this policy makes July or August cargo more costly to ship. Merchants then have a reason to choose May or June, the period whose recorded losses stayed below the insurers’ cutoff. The fee works by changing departure timing, rather than lowering premiums directly, so it may help merchants avoid the higher insurance costs. Choice A.