Question 64·Hard·Inferences
Maritime historian Elise Cooper’s analysis of shipping logs from the Port of Greyhaven between 1710 and 1720 demonstrates that the season in which a vessel set sail significantly affected its risk of hurricane loss. Of the 324 ships that departed in May or June during that decade, only 7 (about 2%) were recorded as lost to hurricanes, whereas 61 of the 355 ships (roughly 17%) that departed in July or August were lost. Insurance ledgers reveal that underwriters deemed any seasonal loss rate above 10% unacceptable and sharply increased premiums whenever that threshold was exceeded. Cooper thus conjectures that, in an effort to stabilize insurance costs for merchants, the Port of Greyhaven’s harbor master in 1721 decided to ______
Which choice most logically completes the text?
For SAT text-completion inference questions, first restate in your own words the key facts (here, the seasonal loss rates and the 10 percent insurance threshold) and the stated goal right before the blank (for example, to stabilize insurance costs). Then, ask what general kind of action would achieve that goal given the evidence (such as shifting departures away from high-risk months), and eliminate choices that introduce new, unsupported topics or that do not clearly connect to the specific data. Prefer the option that most directly uses the passage’s details to accomplish the stated aim.
Hints
Focus on the seasonal risk pattern
Look closely at the specific numbers for ships lost in May/June versus July/August. In which part of the summer is hurricane risk much higher?
Connect the data to the 10% insurance threshold
Insurers sharply increase premiums when the seasonal loss rate goes above 10 percent. Based on the data given, which months are most likely to push the loss rate over that threshold?
Think about the harbor master's goal
The harbor master wants to 'stabilize insurance costs for merchants.' Which kind of policy would directly influence when ships choose to depart and therefore affect how many sail during the highest-risk time?
Eliminate answers that add new, unsupported ideas
Cross out any option that depends on details never mentioned in the passage (like specific ship designs or tonnage limits) or that does not clearly change the seasonal pattern of risk described in the data.
Step-by-step Explanation
Summarize the key data about risk by season
The shipping logs show a strong seasonal pattern:
- May/June: 7 of 324 ships were lost to hurricanes, about 2 percent.
- July/August: 61 of 355 ships were lost, about 17 percent. So ships leaving in July or August were much more likely to be lost in hurricanes than those leaving earlier in the summer.
Understand the insurers' behavior and the 10% threshold
Insurance ledgers say underwriters considered any seasonal loss rate above 10 percent 'unacceptable' and sharply raised premiums when that threshold was passed. That means if too many ships sail in high-risk times (like July/August with about 17 percent loss), insurers will increase how much merchants must pay for insurance.
Interpret the goal of the harbor master's decision
The question says Cooper believes the harbor master acted 'in an effort to stabilize insurance costs for merchants.' To stabilize costs, the harbor master would need a policy that reduces the overall hurricane-loss rate or keeps ships from sailing when losses are most likely, so that insurers do not feel forced to raise premiums.
Match the policy choice to the evidence and goal
Now test each option against that goal:
- A policy that makes late-summer departures more expensive would push merchants to avoid the riskiest months, lowering the seasonal loss rate and preventing insurers from crossing the 10 percent threshold.
- The other options either do not change when ships sail or introduce new ideas not supported by the data. Therefore, the choice in which the harbor master levies a surcharge on cargo shipped in July or August to discourage late-summer departures most logically completes the text.