An inference question that asks what would most likely happen tests whether you can make a prediction from the text. Read the proposed change and ask what the passage says it would affect. Then put each clue in a few words, including any tradeoff. Use those clues to predict only what the text supports, and check each part of your prediction against the text. An ending goes too far if it adds certainty or effects the text doesn't support.
Hints
- Hint 1
Look at Chen’s warning about care during the first three years. What must cities fund during that period?
- Hint 2
In Chen’s final sentence, track survival and the number planted. Use both to predict what the monitoring program would most likely do.
Step-by-step
Trace the planting and survival tradeoff
Step 1Find what threatens survival
Chen says survival rates drop sharply without funds for watering and pest management, so planting a sapling isn't enough to keep it alive. What does that tell us about predicting what the monitoring program would do? Care during the first three years matters, so we need to follow what happens after planting rather than count saplings alone. Survival matters as well as planting.
- Step 2
Weigh monitoring’s cost and benefit
What changes when residents take part? They receive brief training and modest stipends, so monitoring uses some money that could have paid for planting. These residents significantly improve survival, even when the number of trees planted is reduced to cover the stipends. We shouldn't confuse the number going into the ground with the number still alive later. We can predict that paying residents to monitor trees gives saplings a better chance to survive, despite fewer trees being planted.
- Step 3
Limit the prediction
Chen never says the program would make additional tree planting unnecessary or require cities to hire full-time arborists. How far does most likely let us take the survival benefit? The promise to guarantee that all newly planted trees survive goes too far because a higher survival rate can still include losses. The increase in survival can make up for planting fewer trees, leaving fewer trees planted at first but more reaching maturity. Choice C.