Climate models in a regional report project that emissions will fall over the next decade even as the population grows. The authors describe this forecast as ______, noting that the decline depends on current tax incentives remaining in effect and several delayed rail projects being completed.
Which choice completes the text with the most logical and precise word or phrase?
For Words-in-Context questions, use the explanatory clause surrounding the blank to predict a precise meaning before comparing the options. Distinguish between choices that are broadly compatible with the topic and the one that directly expresses the relationship established by the full sentence.
Hints
Focus on the final clause
Consider what the requirements involving tax incentives and rail projects reveal about the certainty of the forecast.
Distinguish the source from the limitation
The sentence is not primarily explaining whether the forecast is based on evidence. It is explaining when the forecast will remain valid.
Paraphrase before choosing
Complete this thought in your own words: “The forecast will hold only if certain circumstances continue.” Then select the option closest to that meaning.
Step-by-step Explanation
Identify the key contextual detail
The clause after the blank explains that the projected decline depends on tax incentives remaining in effect and rail projects being completed. Thus, the forecast will hold only if certain conditions are met.
Predict the needed meaning
The blank should mean dependent on particular circumstances or requirements. The sentence is emphasizing the limits placed on the forecast, not merely that the report uses data or predicts the future.
Compare the choices
Empirical means based on observation or evidence, prescriptive means recommending what should be done, and predictive means concerned with forecasting future events. Contingent means dependent on specified conditions, which precisely matches the explanation following the blank.
Complete the sentence
Describing the forecast as contingent accurately conveys that the projected emissions decline depends on the policies and projects mentioned in the sentence.