Question 92·Medium·Cross-Text Connections
Text 1
In 2007, an influential climate report declared that if greenhouse-gas emissions stayed on their current path, summertime Arctic sea ice "could completely disappear by 2040." The projection was based on computer simulations that, at the time, were considered state-of-the-art but used relatively coarse grids to represent the Arctic Ocean.
Text 2
A team of researchers revisited the 2007 projection using high-resolution models and satellite data collected over the past 15 years. They confirmed that Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly but found that coarse-grid models tend to exaggerate the speed of retreat when ice cover becomes patchy. The team concluded that the total loss of summer sea ice is still probable this century, yet the exact year is difficult to pin down and may occur well after 2040.
Based on the texts, how would the researchers in Text 2 most likely respond to the 2007 report’s prediction described in Text 1?
For cross-text questions, first summarize each passage’s main point in a short phrase (for example, “early prediction: total loss by 2040 using coarse models” vs. “updated analysis: agrees on loss, questions timing and speed”). Then ask: do the texts agree, disagree, or partially agree with added nuance? Look for specific language showing whether the second text confirms, modifies, or challenges key details (like numbers, dates, or causes) from the first. Finally, eliminate answer choices that are too extreme (total praise or total dismissal) or that reverse the direction of agreement/disagreement, and choose the one that best captures both the agreement and the specific change or criticism described.
Hints
Compare the main conclusions of the two texts
First, restate in your own words what the 2007 report predicts in Text 1, then restate what the researchers in Text 2 conclude about sea ice over this century.
Notice where Text 2 agrees with Text 1
Look for phrases in Text 2 that describe what is happening to the Arctic sea ice overall. Do the researchers think the sea ice is shrinking or not?
Notice where Text 2 disagrees or adds nuance
Focus on what Text 2 says about coarse-grid models and about how easy or hard it is to predict the exact year of total summer sea-ice loss. How does this affect their view of a specific year like 2040?
Check tone and extremeness of each option
Ask whether the researchers’ attitude toward the 2007 report sounds completely negative, completely supportive, or mixed. Eliminate any answer that is more extreme than the language in Text 2 supports.
Step-by-step Explanation
Identify the key claim in Text 1
Text 1 says that, in 2007, a climate report predicted that if emissions stayed on their path, summertime Arctic sea ice “could completely disappear by 2040.” This prediction was based on coarse-grid computer models that were considered advanced at the time.
Summarize what Text 2 finds
Text 2 describes a team using high-resolution models and recent satellite data. They:
- Confirm that Arctic sea ice is “retreating rapidly.”
- Find that coarse-grid models exaggerate how fast ice retreats when it becomes patchy.
- Conclude that total loss of summer sea ice is still probable this century, but the exact year is hard to pin down and may be well after 2040.
Decide how Text 2 views Text 1 overall
Put the two together:
- Agreement: Both say sea ice is shrinking fast and will probably disappear in summer this century.
- Disagreement: Text 2 thinks the older, coarse models overstated the speed of retreat and that 2040 is too specific and likely too early. So they would respect the general warning but question the exact date and precision of the 2007 prediction.
Match this relationship to the answer choices
Eliminate choices that show total rejection (they do not dismiss the report, since they confirm rapid retreat) or claim the 2040 date is still best (they explicitly say it may occur well after 2040), or say the report was too slow (they find it was too fast). The only choice that matches “right overall trend, wrong confidence in the exact date” is:
D) They would praise the report for correctly anticipating an overall decline but question its confidence in a precise disappearance date.