Question 54·Hard·Probability and Conditional Probability
A company uses three high-volume printers—X, Y, and Z—for all of its print jobs. The percentage of the company’s total pages printed by each printer and the percentage of those pages that experience a paper jam are shown below.
| Printer | Percentage of all pages printed | Percentage of pages from that printer that jam |
|---|---|---|
| X | 40% | 2% |
| Y | 35% | 3% |
| Z | 25% | 5% |
A page is selected at random from all pages that jammed during printing. What is the probability that this jammed page was printed by printer Z?
For SAT conditional probability questions with tables or percentages, think in two steps: first, convert percentages to concrete counts by assuming a convenient total (like 100 or 10,000) so calculations stay simple; second, restrict attention to the condition given (here, “jammed” pages) and form the ratio: desired subgroup (e.g., jammed pages from Z) over the total in that condition (all jammed pages). This avoids memorizing formulas and reduces errors from trying to reason directly with layered percentages.
Hints
Translate the percentages into actual counts
It can help to assume a total number of pages (like 1,000 or 10,000) and turn each percentage into an actual number of pages for printers X, Y, and Z.
Focus on jammed pages for each printer
Once you know how many pages each printer handles, use the jam percentages to find how many of those pages jam for X, Y, and Z separately.
Condition on “jammed”
You are choosing from the set of jammed pages only. Among those jammed pages, what fraction came from printer Z?
Form the final ratio
Place the number of jammed pages from Z over the total number of jammed pages from all printers, then simplify the fraction.
Desmos Guide
Compute the conditional probability directly in Desmos
In the Desmos expression line, type the exact probability expression using decimals: (0.25*0.05) / (0.40*0.02 + 0.35*0.03 + 0.25*0.05). The numeric result that Desmos shows is the probability that a jammed page came from Z; you can then match this decimal to the closest fraction in the answer choices.
Step-by-step Explanation
Recognize this is a conditional probability
The question asks: given that a page jammed, what is the probability it was printed by Z?
In probability notation, that is . To find this, you can think:
So we need the number of jammed pages from each printer.
Pick a convenient total number of pages
To make the percentages easy to work with, assume the company printed 10,000 pages in total (any large round number works, like 100 or 1,000; the ratio will be the same).
Using the first column of the table:
- Printer X prints of 10,000 pages: pages.
- Printer Y prints of 10,000 pages: pages.
- Printer Z prints of 10,000 pages: pages.
Find how many of those pages jam for each printer
Now use the second column (jam percentages for each printer):
- X: of X's 4,000 pages jam:
jammed pages from X. - Y: of Y's 3,500 pages jam:
jammed pages from Y. - Z: of Z's 2,500 pages jam:
jammed pages from Z.
Total jammed pages from all printers:
Form the conditional probability and simplify
We want the probability that a randomly chosen jammed page came from Z:
Now simplify by dividing top and bottom by 5:
So the correct answer is .