Question 3·Hard·Probability and Conditional Probability
| Rhesus factor | A | B | AB | O |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| + | 33 | 9 | 3 | 37 |
| – | 7 | 2 | 1 | x |
Human blood can be classified into four common blood types—A, B, AB, and O. It is also characterized by the presence (+) or absence (–) of the rhesus factor.
The table above shows the distribution of blood type and rhesus factor for a group of people. If one of these people who is rhesus negative (–) is chosen at random, the probability that the person has blood type B is . What is the value of ?
(Express the answer as an integer)
For conditional probability questions like this, immediately restrict your attention to the group described in the condition (here, the rhesus negative row). Compute the total just within that group, write the desired probability as (favorable outcomes)/(total in that group), and set it equal to the given probability. Then solve the resulting simple equation—usually a proportion—carefully, checking any small arithmetic sums like to avoid avoidable mistakes.
Hints
Identify the correct total
The problem specifies that the chosen person is rhesus negative (–). Should your total number of possible people come from the whole table or just from the negative row?
Set up the probability fraction
Within the rhesus negative group, how many people have blood type B? What expression represents the total number of rhesus negative people? Write the probability of picking a B– person as a fraction using these numbers.
Use the given probability to form an equation
You know the probability of picking a B– person (from the negative group) equals . Set your fraction from the previous hint equal to and simplify the denominator .
Solve the resulting equation
After simplifying, you should get a fraction of the form . Set it equal to and solve the resulting proportion by cross-multiplying.
Desmos Guide
Enter the two expressions to graph
In one line, type y = 2/(7 + 2 + 1 + x) and in another line type y = 1/9. These represent the two sides of the probability equation as functions of .
Simplify mentally and adjust if desired
You can also replace 7 + 2 + 1 with 10, so the first line is y = 2/(10 + x); this is equivalent and easier to read.
Find the intersection point
Look for where the two graphs intersect. Tap or click on the intersection point; Desmos will display its coordinates. The x-coordinate of this intersection is the value of that makes the probabilities equal.
Step-by-step Explanation
Focus on the correct group (conditional probability)
The problem says “one of these people who is rhesus negative (–) is chosen at random.”
That means we are only choosing from the people in the rhesus – row, not from the whole table.
So the total number of possible people is the sum of the negative counts:
- Type A–: 7
- Type B–: 2
- Type AB–: 1
- Type O–:
Total rhesus negative people: .
Write the probability as a fraction
We are told that, given the person is rhesus negative, the probability that the person has blood type B is .
Within the rhesus negative group:
- The number of B– people is 2.
- The total number of negative people is .
So the probability of B given negative is
Now simplify the denominator .
Simplify the denominator and set up the equation
Compute the sum in the denominator:
So the equation becomes
Now solve this equation for .
Solve the equation for x
Solve
Cross-multiply and simplify:
So the value of is 8.