Question 12·Hard·Probability and Conditional Probability
A health survey of 800 adults recorded two pieces of information for each person:
- whether the adult had received a flu shot in the past year, and
- whether the adult had had an annual physical exam.
The results showed that 60% of the adults received a flu shot, 70% had an annual physical exam, and 15% had neither a flu shot nor an annual physical exam.
To the nearest tenth of a percent, what percent of adults who had an annual physical exam also received a flu shot?
For probability questions that mention two conditions and a group like "who had X," first rewrite the problem in terms of events (for example, for flu shot and for exam). Use complements (like "neither") to find the percent who had at least one, then apply the union formula to get the overlap. Finally, interpret "who had X" as a conditional probability and compute , being careful to divide by the correct group and then convert to a percent.
Hints
Identify the group you are focusing on
The question asks about adults who had an annual physical exam. Treat that group as your new "total." What fraction of this group also got a flu shot?
Use the information about "neither"
If 15% of adults had neither a flu shot nor an annual exam, what percent had at least one of the two? Then think about how this relates to the formula for .
Find the overlap (both events)
Use the relationship with the values you know to find the percent who had both a flu shot and an exam.
Turn the overlap into a conditional probability
Once you know the percent who had both, divide by the percent who had an exam to get the conditional probability. Then convert that to a percent and round to the nearest tenth.
Desmos Guide
Compute the needed conditional probability in one expression
In Desmos, type the expression (0.6 + 0.7 - 0.85) / 0.7 * 100. This uses and for the two individual percents, for the percent with at least one (since ), divides by (the exam group), and multiplies by to convert to a percent. Read off the numerical result shown by Desmos and round it to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Step-by-step Explanation
Organize the given information
Translate the percentages into probabilities (or think of them as percents directly):
- Flu shot:
- Annual exam:
- Neither:
From 15% with neither, it follows that of adults had at least one of the two (flu shot or exam).
Use the union ("or") formula to find the percent who had both
Let be "had a flu shot" and be "had an annual exam."
We know:
- (because they had at least one)
Use the union formula:
Plug in the known values and solve for (the percent who had both).
Compute the percent who had both a flu shot and an exam
From the formula:
So
Rearrange to get
So 45% of adults had both a flu shot and an annual exam.
Form the conditional probability and convert to a percent
The question asks: "what percent of adults who had an annual physical exam also received a flu shot?" That is the conditional probability , which is
Substitute the values:
Compute this fraction as a decimal, then multiply by 100 to express it as a percent and round to the nearest tenth. The result is 64.3%, which matches choice C.