Question 30·Hard·Inference from Sample Statistics and Margin of Error
Researchers surveyed a random sample of 240 of the approximately 15,000 households in Greenville and found that 63 percent of them recycle at least once a week. For this sample size, a 95 percent confidence interval for the true proportion of all households in Greenville that recycle at least once a week has a margin of error of approximately ±6 percentage points.
Based on this information, which range best estimates the number of households in Greenville that recycle at least once a week?
For SAT questions involving a proportion with a given margin of error, first form the confidence interval for the proportion (sample percent ± margin of error), convert those percentages to decimals, and then multiply by the total population size to get counts. Always check that the interval you choose is centered around the sample estimate and uses exactly the given margin of error, not a wider or shifted range.
Hints
Interpret the margin of error
Start by using the 63% from the sample and the ±6 percentage point margin of error to form a range of possible percentages for all Greenville households.
Turn percentages into actual household counts
Once you have the lower and upper percentage bounds, convert those percentages into decimals and multiply by the total of 15,000 households to get a range of household counts.
Compare your range to the answer choices
After you find the lower and upper estimates for the number of households, look for the answer choice whose range matches your calculated numbers.
Desmos Guide
Compute the lower estimate
In Desmos, type (0.63 - 0.06) * 15000 and note the value shown; this is the lower estimate for the number of households that recycle weekly.
Compute the upper estimate and match to choices
Type (0.63 + 0.06) * 15000 and note this value; then look for the answer choice whose interval uses the lower and upper values you just found.
Step-by-step Explanation
Use the sample percentage and margin of error
The researchers found that 63% of the sampled households recycle at least once a week, with a margin of error of ±6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
This means the true proportion of all Greenville households that recycle is estimated to lie between:
- Lower bound:
- Upper bound:
Convert percentages to proportions and relate to total households
Convert the percentage bounds to decimal proportions:
These represent the fraction of all 15,000 households that are expected to recycle at least once a week. So the estimated number of such households is between of 15,000 and of 15,000.
Calculate the corresponding number of households and match the choice
Now multiply each bound by 15,000:
- Lower bound:
- Upper bound:
So the estimated number of households that recycle at least once a week is between 8,550 and 10,350, which matches choice B.