A poll’s margin of error gives a range of plausible percentages for the whole population, not one exact percentage. Subtract and add the margin in percentage points, then use Desmos to turn both endpoints into counts. Use the whole population, not the sample size, when converting percentages to counts.
Hints
- Hint 1
The margin of error tells you how far the citywide percentage could reasonably be from the sample estimate. Subtract and add the stated percentage points directly. What percent interval do you get?
- Hint 2
A sample is the smaller group surveyed. The question asks about the entire city, so apply both endpoint percentages to the total number of registered voters. Which choice falls between the resulting counts?
Step-by-step
Build a plausible count interval
Step 1Find the plausible percent interval
The describes the sample of voters, so it estimates the percentage among all registered voters rather than fixing it exactly. The -point margin of error lets that citywide percentage be percentage points below or above . Subtract and add the margin:
So the plausible citywide percentage runs from to . Don't take of ; the margin is added and subtracted as percentage points.
- Step 2
Convert the endpoints to voter counts
The question asks about the registered voters, not just the surveyed. Type and on separate lines in Desmos. It prints and , so the plausible citywide count runs from to .
- Step 3
Check which count fits
Compare the choices with the plausible count interval from to . Only falls inside it, so is a plausible number of registered voters planning to vote for the candidate. Apply the margin to the percent first, then apply that range to the whole population. Choice B.