Question 18·Hard·Probability and Conditional Probability
| Housing type | 1 bedroom | 2 bedrooms | 3 or more bedrooms |
|---|---|---|---|
| City center | 18 | 24 | 6 |
| Suburbs | 14 | p | 20 |
A real-estate website categorizes each listed apartment by location and by the number of bedrooms, as shown in the table above.
If a randomly selected suburban listing has at least 2 bedrooms, the probability that it has exactly 2 bedrooms is . What is the value of ?
(Express the answer as an integer)
For conditional probability questions in the SAT Math section, first isolate the restricted group (the condition, like "suburban listings with at least 2 bedrooms") and treat that group as your new total. Then write the probability as (number of desired outcomes within that group) divided by (total number in that group), set this fraction equal to the given probability, and solve the resulting equation. Always double-check that your denominator matches the conditional phrase ("given that...") and not the overall total in the table.
Hints
Focus on the correct group of listings
When the problem says a suburban listing has at least 2 bedrooms, which two cells in the Suburbs row are we talking about? How many listings are in those two cells, in terms of ?
Recall how conditional probability is computed
For a statement like "Given that the listing has at least 2 bedrooms, the probability it has exactly 2 bedrooms," think: what goes in the numerator and what goes in the denominator of the probability fraction?
Set up an equation with the given probability
Write the fraction for
- numerator = number of suburban listings with exactly 2 bedrooms,
- denominator = number of suburban listings with at least 2 bedrooms,
and set this equal to . Then solve for .
Desmos Guide
Enter the equation representing the probability
In an expression line, type y = x/(x+20) to represent the probability of choosing a 2-bedroom suburban listing given that it has at least 2 bedrooms (where x stands for ).
Graph the given probability as a horizontal line
In a new line, type y = 5/9 to graph the constant probability from the problem.
Find the intersection to get p
Zoom or adjust the window until you can see where the graph of y = x/(x+20) intersects the line y = 5/9. Click the intersection point and read off the x-value; that x-value is the value of .
Step-by-step Explanation
Identify which listings the condition is talking about
We are told: "If a randomly selected suburban listing has at least 2 bedrooms...".
That means we are only looking at suburban apartments with 2 bedrooms or 3 or more bedrooms.
From the table, in the Suburbs row:
- 2 bedrooms:
- 3 or more bedrooms:
So these are the only listings in our sample space for this probability question.
Write the size of the new (conditional) sample space
Within suburban listings that have at least 2 bedrooms, the total number of such listings is
- Number with exactly 2 bedrooms:
- Number with 3 or more bedrooms:
So the total number of suburban listings with at least 2 bedrooms is
Express the given conditional probability as a fraction
We are given:
If a randomly selected suburban listing has at least 2 bedrooms, the probability that it has exactly 2 bedrooms is .
In terms of counts, this probability is
From Step 2:
-
with exactly 2 bedrooms is .
-
with at least 2 bedrooms is .
So we must have
Solve the equation for p
Now solve
Cross-multiply:
Distribute and simplify:
Divide both sides by 4:
So the value of is 25.